This isn’t exactly an original observation, that Apple AAPL 0% doesn’t any
longer own the i9500
S4 smartphone market in quite the way that it once did. But we’ve
another little set of stories, leading up to the results, that show that the
process is continuing.For example, none of the three major networks in Russia
now offer the Apple iPhone as a standard choice.
But 10 months later,
there’s not an iPhone to be had at any of the big three carriers’ stores. Last
week the last hold-out — VimpleCom, which sells phones under the Beeline brand —
cut its ties with Apple (AAPL) and began offering its customers Samsung’s Galaxy
S4 instead.Between January and March, Apple sold some 120,000 iPhones in India,
down from the 230,000 in the October-December quarter of last year, according to
IDC. That translated into its share falling from 4.7% to 2.1%.
At the
same time, iOS market share grew from 2% to 6.2% in Brazil, but actually
declined from 8.6% to 4.7% in Mexico. Android vendors have recently gone on a
price cutting binge in Latin America, slashing prices of smartphones to well
below 300 reals in Brazil. The iPhone pricing in Brazil levitates around
2’000-3’000 reals. A subsidized model coming bundled with an expensive monthly
plan can be had for 1’200 reals.
Apple might need to make some hard
choices about emerging market product pricing very soon or face the prospect of
Samsung building a 3-to-1 or 4-to-1 volume advantage in the global smartphone
race. Samsung’s massive 50 million unit quarterly smartphone unit volume is
already giving it an advantage in component sourcing and economies of scale will
benefit Samsung more each quarter it extends its global lead.
Fewer
people are upgrading their smartphones—a trend that could make it harder for
companies from AT&T T +0.22% Inc. to Apple Inc. to keep up the pace of
revenue growth.sdM6Scfs
The rates at which American cellphone users have
traded in their devices for more advanced models have declined over the last few
years, according to analysts at UBS UBS +1.18% AG. They turned negative last
year, when about 68 million people upgraded their phones in the U.S., down more
than 9% from a year earlier.
The problem with this is that most of the
current population who are likely to get a smartphone already have one. And if
they’re not upgrading like they used to then all that’s really left is
replacement devices for those that wear out (figure a 5 year cycle for this) and
then just demographics. It’s not quite that bad but it’s certainly very
different from the boom years when 5 or 10% of the population was buying a
i9500 S4
1:1 smartphone for the first time each year.
To counter the
“damage caused” by “Apple shunning Samsung” for the iPhone 6 processor, the
Korean company is developing a processor with an integrated 3G/4G modem for
low-cost phones to compete with Qualcomm QCOM +1.23% and MediaTek , the report
said.The trade-in programs serve another purpose: They create a source of gently
used smartphones that can be sold to customers on the lower end of the spectrum.
Low-cost prepaid customers seem to be of increasing interest to the phone
carriers.
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